Insider Projects Maple Leafs' Mitch Marner's Insane Next Contract Numbers

While Auston Matthews has been out for the last seven games for the Toronto Maple Leafs, no one should be surprised that Mitch Marner (and William Nylander) have led the team to a 6-1-0 mark in that time.

Marner, an impending free agent who has been the subject of much discussion in Leafs Nation this year (trade him? re-sign him? let him walk?) has had six multi-point games in those seven Auston-less contests, totalling 12 points.

Overall, Marner has continued his excellent play this season with 26 points in 20 games. He is 4th in the entire NHL in Primary Assists over the past five seasons. His value to the team—as a playmaker, as a penalty killer, as a defensive factor—is unquestioned.

Former NHLer and current Sportsnet analyst and insider Nick Kypreos said on his Kyper & Bourne podcast this week that if Marner gets to free agency after the season, he could see him entering Leon Draisaitl ($14M AAV) territory on his next contract.

If you stuck him out in the market as unrestricted free agent, I think someone's going to come to him (and offer) between $13M and $14M (AAV).

"The cap is going up," explained Kypreos. "Listen, Edmonton thought they were going to get Draisaitl for $13M. And he said, 'No, the number is $14M.' And you know what happened? They gave him $14M. And the Leafs may be in a similar situation."

He does go on to admit that, "if he goes to a Conference Final or a Stanley Cup Final, he goes to $14M... Or he can pick another team to go to, and they'll give him $13M-$14M." His co-host Justin Bourne argued vehemently that Marner is not in the same class as Draisaitl because of their playoff numbers. And he's certainly not wrong about those playoff stats.

But this is Toronto, and as Kypreos points out, "Auston's (numbers) weren't either (and he got paid). And neither were Willy's... You could have made the same argument for Matthews."

Kypreos even goes one step further, to argue that Matthews "doesn't provide as much value as Mitch Marner does to the Leafs. As a penalty-killer, minutes played, his point (per game) production...

"Ask (head coach) Craig Berube who he thinks might be his most important player, even with Auston back, and I bet you he'd be pretty darn close to saying Mitch."

In summary, Kypreos insists that if Mitch Marner takes a hometown discount of, say, $12M AAV from the Leafs to re-sign, "he may have left $2M on the table."